Food prices expected to rise again in 2026, led by higher meat costs

Canadian grocery bills may climb again in 2026, with higher meat prices expected to be a key driver, according to a new national forecast.

Researchers behind Canada’s Food Price Report 2026 estimate that overall food prices could increase between 4% and 6% next year. Beef prices, in particular, are expected to rise sharply, putting pressure on household budgets and pushing up costs across the meat aisle (1).

“We’re expecting another difficult year due to beef prices and, because people are pivoting towards chicken, chicken prices are also on the rise,” Sylvain Charlebois, director of Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab and lead author of the report, told CBC News (2). “So that’s why the entire category will actually be more expensive, unfortunately.”

Why meat prices are rising

The report points to tightening beef supply as a major factor behind rising prices. Smaller cattle sizes, ongoing trade pressures and fewer ranchers remaining in the industry have constrained supply — a trend researchers say could last through to 2027, at least.

As consumers shift away from beef toward alternatives like chicken, demand for those products has also increased, pushing prices higher across the entire meat category.

Researchers also warn that pantry staples typically found in the middle aisles of grocery stores — such as canned and packaged goods — could become more expensive after years of relatively stable pricing.

“Typically the centre of the store is a go-to place for people who are seeking harbour from inflation,” Charlebois said. “That’s not going to be the case in 2026.”

Overall, the forecast cites several contributing factors to grocery inflation, including trade disputes, labour challenges, energy and input costs as well as weather-related disruptions affecting food production.

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Canadians already feeling the strain

With food prices trending upward for several years, many Canadians say they are already changing how they shop and eat.

Toronto resident Sabra Al-Harthi told CBC News she plans to cut back on meat purchases. “I think I might just cut off the meat a little bit; make it a weekend thing,” she said.

Others say they are sticking to essentials only. “Sometimes I only get something on sale, but I’m only getting, like, milk, eggs, bread — the essentials,” Giacomo LoGiacco told the news outlet. “I work a full-time job in a factory and I’m barely scraping by. I live paycheque to paycheque.”

Food bank demand growing

Rising grocery costs are also driving increased demand for food banks across the country.

Neil Hetherington, CEO of the Daily Bread Food Bank in Toronto, told CBC News his organization now serves about 330,000 clients each month — up from roughly 60,000 before the pandemic.

“We’re not adding more food. What we’re seeing is more clients,” Hetherington said, noting the organization works with about 14,000 volunteers citywide. “The number of clients here in Toronto could fill the Rogers Centre eight times every single month,” he added.

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What it means for consumers

While the report does not predict a return to the extreme food inflation seen earlier in the decade, it suggests affordability pressures are unlikely to ease meaningfully in 2026.

For many households, that may mean continued trade-offs at the grocery store — buying less meat, switching brands or relying more heavily on sales and discounted food items.

Even modest price increases can add up quickly, especially for families and seniors on fixed incomes.

With food insecurity rising and meat prices expected to climb further, researchers say grocery affordability will remain a key financial challenge for Canadians in the year ahead.

Article sources

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Dalhousie University (1); CBC News (2)