Potential homebuyers show renewed confidence heading into 2026: REMAX says

Potential homebuyers appear to be regaining confidence after a sluggish 2025, with more first-time buyers preparing to enter the market and signs that activity could pick up into next year.

New data from REMAX Canada’s 2026 Housing Market Outlook shows that one in 10 Canadians plans to buy a home in the next twelve months, an increase from earlier this fall, and half of those would be first-time buyers.

“Amid looming economic clouds, Canadians are maintaining their interest in homeownership,” said Don Kottick, President of REMAX Canada, in a statement. “The resilience that began to emerge in the fall is anticipated to continue into 2026, with first-time buyers in particular finding creative ways to save and enter the market.”

Demand is stabilizing as rates ease

After a year of uneven sales, REMAX brokers report renewed buyer intent across many regions. Home sales fell year-over-year in 19 of 33 markets between January and October, but listings increased in more than 75% of regions — a shift toward more balanced conditions after the tight inventory of 2024.

Lower borrowing costs are a major factor behind the improvement.

According to REMAX’s Leger survey, 23% of Canadians say they’d be ready to buy if the Bank of Canada lowered rates by another 0.5 to one percentage point, underscoring how sensitive the market remains to financing conditions.

Younger buyers, in particular, are feeling more optimistic. Among Canadians aged 18 to 35, 21% believe the economy will fare better in 2026, compared with only 10% of the general population planning to purchase. Many are also adjusting their search criteria to reflect a shift back toward in-office work.

“Return-to-office mandates are beginning to weigh on first-time buyers' decisions, prompting many to reconsider not just where they want to live, but how their daily routines, commute times, and lifestyle needs will fit into an in-person work environment,” Kottick said.

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Affordability pressures remain — despite improving sentiment

Even as motivation rises, affordability is still the major barrier across most regions.

REMAX notes that price moderation and higher inventory helped rebalance markets in 2025 — particularly in the Greater Toronto Area, where average prices fell 3.5% — but many households still face significant challenges with carrying costs, stress tests and down payment requirements.

Brokers in major markets say that while buyers are returning, many remain cautious and are watching rates closely before making offers.

In several regions, families, new Canadians and retirees drove a larger share of 2025 sales than first-time buyers, reflecting the financial hurdles younger households continue to face.

Construction productivity adds another layer to housing costs

New analysis from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) highlights a broader structural obstacle: the rising cost of building new homes.

CMHC estimates that weak productivity in residential construction has added $6–8 billion to housing costs since the pandemic, accounting for up to 20% of the increase in new home prices.

The agency warns that delays, inefficiencies and inconsistent building processes are slowing the pace of new supply — limiting the impact of lower rates or increased buyer demand.

Aled ab Iorwerth, CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist, said in a statement that improving efficiency through digital tools, standardized data and more coordinated regulation will be essential. “Productivity is critical, especially in residential construction where Canada’s challenges are most acute,” he noted.

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Key takeaways for home buyers

The real estate picture ahead of 2026 is mixed:

• Buyer motivation is rising, especially among first-time buyers
• Lower interest rates could unlock more activity
• Affordability constraints continue to shape what buyers can take on
• New home supply may remain limited as construction costs rise

For Canadians preparing to enter the market next year, timing and local conditions will matter more than ever. Rates may ease, sentiment is improving — but structural affordability pressures remain a central part of the housing landscape heading into the new year.