Home inventory in Florida is declining after 2 years of growth — as demand across the US also slows down. How this could affect Canadian snowbirds

Real estate inventory in Florida is falling for the first time in two years, according to analysts.

As Newsweek reports, new listings in the state have declined year-over-year in every month since May, with a 2% decrease in May and June, and a 4.8% decrease in July, followed by a 6.5% decrease in August and a 7.2% decrease in September, according to data from Realtor.com (1).

While these declines might seem small, they follow years of steadily rising inventory across the Sunshine State. And experts say the shift isn’t just due to seasonality, which typically explains why sales tend to cool down after a busy spring and summer market.

“I think it’s very notable that Florida didn’t have any seasonality whatsoever for two full years," Mike Simonsen, founder and CEO of Altos Research, told Newsweek. “So the fact that a ‘seasonal’ decline in inventory even happened this year is a change.”

For Canadian snowbirds, these tighter conditions could mean fewer affordable options in popular destinations such as Naples, Sarasota and Palm Beach, areas where thousands of Canucks own second homes. With approximately 500,000 Canadians spending part of the year in Florida (2), reduced inventory and higher prices may make it harder for retirees to buy new vacation properties or upgrade existing ones, especially amid a weaker Canadian dollar and rising U.S. insurance costs (3).

What’s driving the slowdown?

Florida’s housing market soared during the pandemic. With mortgage rates at record lows, millions of Americans suddenly able to work remotely and a steady influx of new residents from higher-cost states, developers raced to build in Florida.

Construction boomed across the state, pushing active listings above 100,000 earlier this year, according to Altos Research. But the conditions that fueled that demand have now faded.

Mortgage rates have spiked in 2025 as the Fed began raising rates to combat inflation. Employers have also called many workers back to the office, slowing the migration that once powered Florida’s growth (4). Meanwhile, home prices remain about 56% higher than in February 2020 (5), insurance premiums continue to climb and climate-related risks are weighing on would-be buyers’ minds.

“Withdrawals are high, which implies that if you don’t have to sell, you’re not,” Simonsen noted to Newsweek. Redfin economist Chen Zhao added that some sellers are stepping back due to “price weakness,” choosing to wait until demand improves.

In short, many of the “urgent sellers” have already cleared out and those remaining are in no rush to drop their asking prices.

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Is inventory falling in other states?

Florida’s reversal is notable because it’s one of the few states that had seen continuous inventory growth since 2022. Nationwide, housing supply has grown, but it's beginning to slow down.

According to Realtor.com’s September data, active listings across the U.S. were up 17% year-over-year, marking the twenty-third straight month of gains. However, the national inventory still sits nearly 14% below pre-pandemic levels, and growth has been slowing down since May (6).

The South and West now have more homes on the market than before 2020, while the Northeast and Midwest remain undersupplied. Cities such as Denver and Austin have exceeded their 2019 inventory levels, but cities like Chicago and Hartford, Connecticut, are lagging.

Homes are also taking longer to sell. The typical U.S. home spent 62 days on the market in September — about a week longer than the same period a year ago. Several Florida cities are among the slowest markets, with listings sitting between 13 and 16 days longer than last September, according to Realtor.com.

What Florida’s cooling housing market could mean for Canadian snowbirds

For Canadian snowbirds — retirees heading south for the winter — the latest drop in Florida’s housing inventory could affect their winter-home plans.

In 2024, Florida estimated that approximately 3.3 million Canadians visited the Sunshine State (7), and other studies estimate around half a million of those snowbirds rent or own property there (8). In fact, 13% of all international homebuyers in the U.S. are Canadian (9).

If inventory tightens and prices stay elevated, Canadians may need to act fast, and consider renting instead of buying, or explore alternative warm-weather destinations outside the U.S., such as Mexico, the Caribbean or staying closer to home.

Numerous factors are influencing Canadians to stay away from the U.S. this travel season. The Canadian dollar has been significantly low against the U.S. dollar, making travel and spending more expensive (10). RBC notes that fewer Canadians are traveling across the border, which may reflect a shift to stimulating the national economy instead (11).

Political tensions, like the U.S. tariffs levied on Canadian goods, the ever-evolving political landscape and tightening border regulations have created more hassle for Canadian travellers than ever before (12). These conditions have influenced some Canadians to sell their U.S. winter homes (13) — potentially reducing demand from the north just as supply is depleting in the south.

If you’re a Canadian who’s still planning to buy property in Florida, here are some considerations:

• Shop around for lenders: Many cross-border professionals advise Canadians buying U.S. real estate to compare mortgage options and be mindful of the conversion between CAD to USD (14).
• Be ready to act quickly: Even though Florida listings are dropping, the best deals will go fast, particularly in popular winter-migration markets (15).
• Consider homes that need light repairs: Sellers eager to offload these properties may be more open to negotiating the price (16).

And for those planning to sell soon:

• Price strategically: Overpricing can lead to longer waits and eventual markdowns. Consider incentives like paying closing costs or offering a mortgage rate buydown to attract buyers and move the sale quicker.
• Highlight practical features: With insurance costs and climate-related events on the rise, highlighting hurricane-ready construction or strong energy efficiency can be selling points for buyers.

Whether you’re still in the running to buy or sell property in Florida, consider market context — gone are the days of the inflated home prices and intense bidding-wars seen during the pandemic. Some experts now say Florida’s housing market is transitioning into a more cautious phase, potentially affecting both Canadian buyers and sellers alike.

Article sources

We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.

Newsweek (1); Financial Post (2,3); Jacksonville (4); NPR (5); Realtor.com (6); FlaglerLive (7); International Travel & Health Insurance Journal (8); Investopedia (9); Canada On Demand (10, 12); RBC (11); Insurance Journal (13); MTFX Group (14,15); DAK Mortgage (16)