Waves of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump has unleashed chaos across global markets, reigniting trade tensions and rattling investors. But billionaire hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio, says the real storm is still to come.
Back in April, Dalio argued in a lengthy social media post that the recent tariff drama is merely a symptom of deeper, structural problems.
“We’re seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political and geopolitical orders,” he wrote.
Dalio outlined four forces he described as reshaping the global landscape — plus two assets that help investors mitigate the ongoing economic risks.
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1. The global monetary order
Dalio said the global economic order is breaking down due to unsustainable debt and deep imbalances between debtor nations, like the U.S., and creditor nations, like China. As these imbalances unwind, Dalio warned the current monetary order will be forced to change in “big disruptive ways,” with major consequences for capital markets and the broader economy.
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Dalio sees the political order of democracies breaking down under the weight of what he calls “huge gaps” in people’s education, income and opportunity levels, as well as values. He said history shows this kind of environment often gives rise to “strong autocratic leaders” — especially when paired with economic and market turmoil.
3. The global power structure
Dalio was blunt on this point: “The international geopolitical world order is breaking down because the era of one dominant power [the U.S.] that dictates the order that other countries follow is over.” He argued it’s being replaced by a “unilateral, power-rules” approach. While the U.S. remains the most powerful nation, Dalio said it’s now operating under a more self-interested “America First” framework.
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Dalio added that “acts of nature” — droughts, floods and pandemics — are becoming more disruptive, while rapid advances in technology, like artificial intelligence, are impacting “all aspects of life, including the money/debt/economic order, the political order, the international order, and the costs of acts of nature.” As a result, these two unstoppable forces will impact the global economy and shift power balances.
Beyond the tariffs
Dalio didn’t offer specific investment advice in his post. But in a February interview with CNBC, he noted the importance of diversification — and pointed to the role of a standard market hedge, such as gold.
“People don't have, typically, an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio,” he said. “When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier.”
Gold is considered a go-to safe haven. It can’t be printed out of thin air like fiat money, and because it’s not tied to any single currency or economy, investors flock to it during periods of economic turmoil or geopolitical uncertainty, driving up its value.
Over the past 12 months, gold prices have surged by approximately 47%, in Canadian dollars (1).
How to invest in gold in Canada
Gold is considered a safe investment as a potential hedge against market volatility and economic uncertainty.
There are several ways to invest in gold, either directly or indirectly:
- Buy physical gold: coins, bars or bullion
- Buy gold ETFs that track the price of gold
- Buy gold stocks gold-mining companies
Gold investment breakdown
Check out some details around gold investment options.
Bullion. Purchasing bullion — coins or bars — is the most traditional way to invest in gold. Canadian investors can make their purchase at CIBC branches, or online through TD Precious Metals, CIBC Precious Metals Fund or the Royal Canadian Mint. As of writing, the spot prices for one troy ounce of gold is approximately CA$5,063.23.
ETFs. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a simple way for new investors to get in on the gold market without the risk associated with investing in specific mining companies. ETFs offer a variety of investment strategies: Some track the value of gold futures, while others directly invest in the companies that mine metal or are backed by physical gold in secure vaults. Canadian investors who buy an ETF or index fund gain exposure to gold without the risk of picking a “winning stock.”
Stocks. Gold stocks are shares of Canadian gold mining companies, and they can be purchased through a brokerage account. One advantage to gold stocks is that these companies can sometimes redirect to other metals if gold prices fall. However, this investment comes with a distinct risk: Regardless of the price of gold, a company’s stock price can decline due to poor financials or management.
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A tangible hedge with passive income
While gold remains a classic hedge, there is another option: real estate. Real estate investment is a time-tested alternative with the added benefit of generating passive income.
When inflation rises, which tariffs are well-known to initiate, property values often increase as well, reflecting the higher cost of materials, labour and land. At the same time, rising living expenses tend to push rents higher, helping landlords offset the erosion of purchasing power.
Real estate investment options
Beyond renting out a room in your house to buying a vacation property that's rented out on Airbnb, new real estate investing platforms are making it easier for Canadians to earn money from the market. Alternative methods like crowdfunding platforms or real estate investment trusts (REITs) are allowing investors to own a piece of real estate without a large down payment or the burdens of property management.
Crowdfunding. Crowdfunding platforms offer a way to get into the housing market without owning a physical property. Investors pool their money to collectively fund residential and commercial properties. This passive approach gives investors a share of rental income and property appreciation while avoiding the burdens of property management. Note that most platforms require a minimum investment, however they also offer diversification and a simple way to get in the real estate game.
REITs. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) also let you invest in real estate — from shopping centres and hospitals to apartment buildings and student housing — without physically owning property. You can earn passive income when the property appreciates in value or earns money (rent) through dividend payments. Typically, investors can buy and sell publicly traded REITs on the stock market, but a REIT ETF can give those who are more risk-averse broad exposure across multiple property types such as commercial, industrial and residential.
Consult a professional
Navigating today’s financial landscape can feel overwhelming. With markets swinging wildly and expert opinions often clashing, it’s difficult to know where to put your money. If you’re finding it challenging to make sense of the noise, now could be the right time to get in touch with a financial advisor.
Article sources
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Gold Price (1)
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Jing is an investment reporter for Money.ca. Prior to joining the team, Jing was a research analyst and editor at one of the leading financial publishing companies in North America. Jing has covered numerous aspects of the financial markets, from blue chip dividend stocks to small cap tech stocks to precious metals and currency. An avid advocate of investing for passive income, he wrote a monthly dividend stock newsletter for the better half of the past decade. In his spare time, Jing plays basketball, the violin and the ukulele.
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